Avai 2-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avai vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Avai and Palmeiras meet at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 June 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Palmeiras have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 0.82 xG and Palmeiras 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 1.025 / defence 1.304 | Palmeiras attack 1.274 / defence 0.605. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 0.987. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.605 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Avai games / 51 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 18% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 56%. Fair-value odds: Avai 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Palmeiras 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 18% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Avai 0.82 / Palmeiras 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 1.025 / def 1.304 | Palmeiras attack 1.274 / def 0.605 | league avg home 1.317 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Palmeiras xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Palmeiras kick off?
Avai vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Palmeiras?
Avai 2 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Avai vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Palmeiras part of?
Avai vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 18% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Avai and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avai and Palmeiras in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Palmeiras away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Avai's attack at 1.02x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.27x) against Avai's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
18%
5.65
26%
3.81
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Avai xG
Total xG
2.46
1.64
Palmeiras xG
5.65
18%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
3%
29.13
25%
4.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 14.1 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Avai and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Avai and 1.64 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Palmeiras?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Avai
1
Draws
1
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Palmeiras?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 0, Palmeiras have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2022, when Palmeiras 3-0 Avai.
Who has won more matches between Avai and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Avai and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avai and Palmeiras finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 0.82 xG and Palmeiras 1.64 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Avai beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 1.02 / defence 1.30 against Palmeiras attack 1.27 / defence 0.60, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 18% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 56%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.