America Mineiro 0-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to take on America Mineiro. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 June 2022, 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, America Mineiro have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, America Mineiro have posted 7W 3D 0L at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — America Mineiro are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: America Mineiro 1.80 PPG, Fluminense 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, America Mineiro have won 1, Fluminense 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Fluminense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 42% versus Fluminense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 24% | Fluminense 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.26 xG and Fluminense 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 1.055 / defence 1.008 | Fluminense attack 0.930 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 0.991. Data: 49 America Mineiro games / 49 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 43% | Draw 31% | Fluminense 26%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Fluminense 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates America Mineiro as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on America Mineiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 40% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jun 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 43% | Draw 31% | Fluminense 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG America Mineiro 1.26 / Fluminense 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 1.055 / def 1.008 | Fluminense attack 0.930 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.257 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Fluminense xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Fluminense kick off?
America Mineiro vs Fluminense kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Fluminense?
America Mineiro 0 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is America Mineiro vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Fluminense part of?
America Mineiro vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 43% chance of winning, Fluminense a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both America Mineiro and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Fluminense?
Record (2 meetings): America Mineiro 1W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are America Mineiro and Fluminense in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates America Mineiro's attack at 1.05x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.24
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.19
0.93
Fluminense xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
7%
13.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.93 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, America Mineiro have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 13W 14D 11L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 15W 9D 14L from 38 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: America Mineiro on 1.39 PPG, Fluminense on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, America Mineiro have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
America Mineiro are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Fluminense in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Fluminense away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.74 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.84 PPG.
Have America Mineiro or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
America Mineiro have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Fluminense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Fluminense won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
America Mineiro's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
America Mineiro
1
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Fluminense?
From 6 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 2, Fluminense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Fluminense 3-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — America Mineiro 32% BTTS, Fluminense 37%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for America Mineiro and 32% for Fluminense.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; America Mineiro have failed to score in 37% of games; Fluminense in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of America Mineiro's recent games and 32% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at America Mineiro's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 12, as America Mineiro and Fluminense drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.26 xG and Fluminense 0.93 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. America Mineiro fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Fluminense landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Fluminense attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 43% | Draw 31% | Fluminense 26%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 24%, Fluminense 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.39 PPG, Fluminense 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.