Botafogo 0-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Estádio Nilton Santos to face Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 June 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fluminense (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 0.87 xG and Fluminense 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.789 / defence 1.223 | Fluminense attack 0.858 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 0.987. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Botafogo games / 51 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 29% | Draw 34% | Fluminense 38%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Fluminense 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 29% | Draw 34% | Fluminense 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Botafogo 0.87 / Fluminense 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.789 / def 1.223 | Fluminense attack 0.858 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.317 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Fluminense xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Fluminense kick off?
Botafogo vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Botafogo 0 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Botafogo vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Fluminense part of?
Botafogo vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 29% chance of winning, Fluminense a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Botafogo and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Botafogo and Fluminense in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Fluminense away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 0.79x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.86x) against Botafogo's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
29%
3.47
34%
2.98
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Botafogo xG
Total xG
1.91
1.04
Fluminense xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 15.4 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.04 for Fluminense, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Pre-Season
Fluminense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fluminense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Fluminense?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 5, Fluminense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Fluminense 1-0 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Fluminense?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Botafogo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Botafogo 0-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.87 xG and Fluminense 1.04 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Botafogo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.79 / defence 1.22 against Fluminense attack 0.86 / defence 0.84, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 29% | Draw 34% | Fluminense 38%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.