Sao Paulo 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo to take on Sao Paulo. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 June 2022, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Sao Paulo at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sao Paulo 1.40 PPG, Palmeiras 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sao Paulo have won 1, Palmeiras 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Sao Paulo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 40% versus Palmeiras 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 26% | Palmeiras 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 0.98 xG and Palmeiras 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.275 / defence 0.951 | Palmeiras attack 1.205 / defence 0.602. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 0.984. Sao Paulo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 0.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.602 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Sao Paulo games / 50 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 30% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 38%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Palmeiras 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sao Paulo 30% | Palmeiras 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jun 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 30% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Sao Paulo 0.98 / Palmeiras 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.275 / def 0.951 | Palmeiras attack 1.205 / def 0.602 | league avg home 1.280 / away 0.984 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Palmeiras xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 21 June 2022 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Sao Paulo 1 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras part of?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 30% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sao Paulo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
Record (1 meetings): Sao Paulo 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 0W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sao Paulo's attack at 1.27x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
30%
3.29
32%
3.16
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.11
1.13
Palmeiras xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.13 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sao Paulo come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 15D 12L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.74 PPG from 38 outings (20W 6D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sao Paulo's home form reads 7W 9D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (9W 3D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.53 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 11W 15D 12L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 20W 6D 12L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Palmeiras away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.58 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2023, when Palmeiras won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
7
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Palmeiras have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sao Paulo 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 42%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Sao Paulo) and 53% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Palmeiras in 42%; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 37% of games; Palmeiras in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 53% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Sao Paulo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Sao Paulo 1-2 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 0.98 xG and Palmeiras 1.13 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.27 / defence 0.95 against Palmeiras attack 1.21 / defence 0.60, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 30% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 38%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 26%, Palmeiras 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.