Cuiaba 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 38%, yet in-form Flamengo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cuiaba vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cuiaba and Flamengo meet at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cuiaba have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cuiaba's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Arena Pantanal this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Pantanal. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Flamengo away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Flamengo are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cuiaba, 2 for Flamengo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2022, ended 0–2 with Flamengo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 43% versus Flamengo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 29% | Flamengo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.06 xG and Flamengo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.810 / defence 0.850 | Flamengo attack 1.186 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 0.918. Data: 68 Cuiaba games / 68 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 38% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 31%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Flamengo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 40% | Flamengo 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 38% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Cuiaba 1.06 / Flamengo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.810 / def 0.850 | Flamengo attack 1.186 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.324 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Flamengo xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Flamengo kick off?
Cuiaba vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Cuiaba 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Cuiaba vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Flamengo part of?
Cuiaba vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 38% chance of winning, Flamengo a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cuiaba and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
Record (3 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Cuiaba and Flamengo in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Flamengo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.81) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.19x) against Cuiaba's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.23
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.98
0.93
Flamengo xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.93 for Flamengo, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 17W 26D 25L from 68 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 35W 15D 18L across 68 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 11W 13D 9L from 33 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 13W 11D 9L across 33 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.72 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 17W 26D 25L in their last 68 games (1.13 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 35W 15D 18L in their last 68 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.39 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Flamengo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cuiaba won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
2
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Flamengo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 42%, Flamengo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Cuiaba) and 54% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 64% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Cuiaba's recent games and 54% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Flamengo tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Cuiaba 1-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.06 xG and Flamengo 0.93 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.81 / defence 0.85 against Flamengo attack 1.19 / defence 0.98, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 38% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 31%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 29%, Flamengo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.