Fluminense 0-2 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host America Mineiro at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fluminense — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, America Mineiro have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
America Mineiro's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fluminense at 1.60 PPG versus America Mineiro's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 1, America Mineiro 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 44% versus America Mineiro 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 41% | America Mineiro 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.69 xG and America Mineiro 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.415 / defence 1.019 | America Mineiro attack 0.881 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 0.930. Fluminense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 68 Fluminense games / 68 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 58% | Draw 24% | America Mineiro 18%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | America Mineiro 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 50% | America Mineiro 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 58% | Draw 24% | America Mineiro 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Fluminense 1.69 / America Mineiro 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.415 / def 1.019 | America Mineiro attack 0.881 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.331 / away 0.930 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.83
America Mineiro xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs America Mineiro kick off?
Fluminense vs America Mineiro kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Fluminense 0 - 2 America Mineiro.
Where is Fluminense vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs America Mineiro part of?
Fluminense vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 58% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fluminense and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and America Mineiro?
Record (3 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 1 | America Mineiro 1W.
What form are Fluminense and America Mineiro in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (1.42) and America Mineiro's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
58%
1.74
24%
4.16
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.52
0.83
America Mineiro xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
3%
29.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Fluminense and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.83 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fluminense come into this having played 68 games, going 30W 15D 23L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 1.40 PPG from 68 outings (25W 20D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.54 PPG, America Mineiro on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fluminense's home form reads 21W 7D 6L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 1.03 points per game from 34 outings (8W 11D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.00 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
America Mineiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 30W 15D 23L in their last 68 games (1.54 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 25W 20D 23L in their last 68 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or America Mineiro away?
Fluminense's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.06 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Fluminense or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and America Mineiro runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Fluminense won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fluminense
1
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, America Mineiro have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Fluminense 3-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and America Mineiro?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 47%, America Mineiro 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fluminense) and 29% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; America Mineiro in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fluminense's recent matches and 44% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Fluminense's recent games and 29% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
America Mineiro cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fluminense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Fluminense 0-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.69 xG and America Mineiro 0.83 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fluminense fell 1.7 short of their projected output. America Mineiro outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.42 / defence 1.02 against America Mineiro attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 58% | Draw 24% | America Mineiro 18%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a America Mineiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 41%, America Mineiro 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
America Mineiro's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.54 PPG, America Mineiro 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the America Mineiro win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.