Ceara 1-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ceara at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ceara and Cuiaba meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Ceara (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ceara have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cuiaba have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cuiaba's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Ceara against 1.00 for Cuiaba. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ceara, 0 for Cuiaba and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jun 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ceara half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 54% versus Cuiaba 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 35% | Cuiaba 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.09 xG and Cuiaba 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.796 / defence 1.151 | Cuiaba attack 0.832 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.931. Ceara's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Ceara games / 69 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 40% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 29%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Cuiaba 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ceara at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ceara if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 60% | Cuiaba 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 40% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Ceara 1.09 / Cuiaba 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.796 / def 1.151 | Cuiaba attack 0.832 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.327 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Ceara (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cuiaba xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Cuiaba kick off?
Ceara vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Cuiaba?
Ceara 1 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Ceara vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Cuiaba part of?
Ceara vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 40% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ceara and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Cuiaba?
Record (3 meetings): Ceara 1W | Draws 2 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Ceara and Cuiaba in?
Ceara (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ceara's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.83x) against Ceara's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.24
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Ceara xG
Total xG
1.98
0.89
Cuiaba xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
10%
10.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Ceara and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ceara and 0.89 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ceara come into this having played 69 games, going 17W 32D 20L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.12 PPG from 69 outings (17W 26D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Ceara against 1.12 for Cuiaba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ceara's home form reads 13W 14D 8L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 0.89 points per game from 35 outings (6W 13D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ceara are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.83 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 17W 32D 20L in their last 69 games (1.20 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 17W 26D 26L in their last 69 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Cuiaba away?
Ceara's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.51 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Ceara or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ceara have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ceara
3
Draws
0
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Cuiaba?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 1, Cuiaba have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when Ceara 1-1 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Cuiaba?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 57%, Cuiaba 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ceara) and 34% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Ceara have failed to score in 26% of games; Cuiaba in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Ceara's recent matches and 43% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ceara's recent games and 34% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ceara and Cuiaba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara and Cuiaba finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.09 xG and Cuiaba 0.89 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Cuiaba attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 40% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 29%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 35%, Cuiaba 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.20 PPG, Cuiaba 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.