Flamengo 1-0 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Atletico-MG at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Flamengo are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico-MG stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Flamengo at 1.60 PPG versus Atletico-MG's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 1, Atletico-MG 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 0–2 with Atletico-MG winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 49% versus Atletico-MG 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | Atletico-MG 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.53 xG and Atletico-MG 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.346 / defence 0.851 | Atletico-MG attack 1.086 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 0.931. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 69 Flamengo games / 69 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 53% | Draw 26% | Atletico-MG 21%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Atletico-MG 4.76. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 40% | Atletico-MG 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 53% | Draw 26% | Atletico-MG 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Flamengo 1.53 / Atletico-MG 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.346 / def 0.851 | Atletico-MG attack 1.086 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.330 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Atletico-MG xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Flamengo 1 - 0 Atletico-MG.
Where is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG part of?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 53% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Flamengo and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Record (2 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 0 | Atletico-MG 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Atletico-MG in?
Flamengo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Atletico-MG (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.35x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.85
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.39
0.86
Atletico-MG xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
5%
21.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.86 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo's recent record stands at 36W 15D 18L from 69 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Atletico-MG, meanwhile, have gone 38W 17D 14L across 69 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.78 PPG, Atletico-MG on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 22W 4D 8L from 34 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico-MG's away record stands at 15W 11D 8L across 34 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.52 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Atletico-MG in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Atletico-MG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 36W 15D 18L in their last 69 games (1.78 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 38W 17D 14L in their last 69 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Atletico-MG away?
Flamengo's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.06 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2026, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Atletico-MG specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Flamengo
2
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 6, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Atletico-MG 0-4 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Atletico-MG see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 35%, Atletico-MG 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 38% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Atletico-MG in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Atletico-MG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Flamengo's recent matches and 50% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 38% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Atletico-MG tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atletico-MG in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Atletico-MG 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Atletico-MG 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.53 xG and Atletico-MG 0.86 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico-MG landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.35 / defence 0.85 against Atletico-MG attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 53% | Draw 26% | Atletico-MG 21%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, Atletico-MG 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.78 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.