Fortaleza EC 2-0 Avai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortaleza EC at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Avai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Avai at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza EC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Avai have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Avai away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Fortaleza EC are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fortaleza EC have won 0, Avai 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2022, ended 2–3 with Avai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games).
Avai in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 50% versus Avai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 37% | Avai 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.75 xG and Avai 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.943 / defence 0.989 | Avai attack 0.651 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.935. Avai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Fortaleza EC games / 30 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 65% | Draw 23% | Avai 12%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Avai 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 30% | Avai 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 65% | Draw 23% | Avai 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 37% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.75 / Avai 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.943 / def 0.989 | Avai attack 0.651 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.935 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Avai xG
37%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Avai kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Avai kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Avai?
Fortaleza EC 2 - 0 Avai.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Avai part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Avai is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 65% chance of winning, Avai a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Avai?
Record (1 meetings): Fortaleza EC 0W | Draws 0 | Avai 1W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Avai in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Avai (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.94) and Avai's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Avai's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
65%
1.54
23%
4.43
12%
8.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.35
0.60
Avai xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
8.14
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
2%
46.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.60 for Avai, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Avai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 10W 8D 12L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Avai's form line: 7W 7D 16L from 30 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.27 PPG, Avai on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L).
On the road, Avai have gone 1W 3D 10L from 14 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Avai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Avai are on 0.93 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Avai in 60%.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Avai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Avai in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Avai have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Avai away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.29 PPG; Avai away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Avai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Avai in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fortaleza EC
0
Draws
1
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 1, Avai have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2022, when Fortaleza EC 2-0 Avai.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 36%, Avai 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Fortaleza EC) and 50% (Avai).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 43% of games; Avai in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Avai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 43% of Avai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Avai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 50% of Avai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Avai tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Avai in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortaleza EC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Avai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Avai 2-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.75 xG and Avai 0.60 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Avai attack 0.65 / defence 1.38, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 65% | Draw 23% | Avai 12%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 37%, Avai 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Avai's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.27 PPG, Avai 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.