RB Bragantino 2-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 30 as RB Bragantino welcome Cuiaba to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 5 October 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Cuiaba — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Bragantino 0.80 PPG, Cuiaba 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for RB Bragantino, 1 for Cuiaba and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 55% versus Cuiaba 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (RB Bragantino 48% | Cuiaba 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.43 xG and Cuiaba 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.078 / defence 1.044 | Cuiaba attack 0.828 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 0.902. Data: 67 RB Bragantino games / 67 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 53% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 20%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Cuiaba 5.00. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 50% | Cuiaba 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Oct 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 53% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG RB Bragantino 1.43 / Cuiaba 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.078 / def 1.044 | Cuiaba attack 0.828 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.316 / away 0.902 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Cuiaba xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
RB Bragantino 2 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba part of?
RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 53% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both RB Bragantino and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
Record (3 meetings): RB Bragantino 0W | Draws 2 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.70
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.21
0.78
Cuiaba xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
5%
20.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.78 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 22W 25D 20L from 67 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 17W 26D 24L across 67 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Bragantino on 1.36 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 13W 14D 6L from 33 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 6W 13D 14L across 33 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.82 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 22W 25D 20L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 17W 26D 24L in their last 67 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Cuiaba away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.61 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.94 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
5
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Cuiaba have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 54%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (RB Bragantino) and 33% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cuiaba in 30%; Cuiaba in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 33% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Cuiaba tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Cuiaba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Cuiaba 2-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.43 xG and Cuiaba 0.78 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Cuiaba attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 53% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 20%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 48%, Cuiaba 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Cuiaba's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.36 PPG, Cuiaba 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.