Bahia 0-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sao Paulo make the trip to Arena Fonte Nova to face Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 5W 3D 2L at Arena Fonte Nova — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova.
Sao Paulo (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sao Paulo have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Bahia, 1.30 for Sao Paulo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bahia 1W, Sao Paulo 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bahia — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sao Paulo — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 46% versus Sao Paulo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 49% | Sao Paulo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.28 xG and Sao Paulo 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.937 / defence 1.040 | Sao Paulo attack 0.578 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.143. Data: 35 Bahia games / 73 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 51% | Draw 29% | Sao Paulo 20%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Sao Paulo 5.00. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | Sao Paulo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Nov 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 51% | Draw 29% | Sao Paulo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG Bahia 1.28 / Sao Paulo 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.937 / def 1.040 | Sao Paulo attack 0.578 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Bahia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Sao Paulo xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Bahia vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Bahia 0 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Bahia vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Sao Paulo part of?
Bahia vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 51% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bahia and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
Record (3 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 1 | Sao Paulo 1W.
What form are Bahia and Sao Paulo in?
Bahia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Sao Paulo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bahia's attack at 0.94x the league average against Sao Paulo's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (0.58x) against Bahia's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.42
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Bahia xG
Total xG
1.97
0.69
Sao Paulo xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
6%
17.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Bahia and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Bahia and 0.69 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bahia come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 8D 16L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.34 PPG from 35 outings (12W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Bahia against 1.34 for Sao Paulo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bahia's home form reads 7W 5D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 0.47 points per game from 17 outings (0W 8D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sao Paulo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.06 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 11W 8D 16L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 12W 11D 12L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Sao Paulo away?
Bahia's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.53 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Bahia or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sao Paulo won 0-3 on 6 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Bahia
2
Draws
5
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 2, Sao Paulo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 59%, Sao Paulo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bahia) and 35% (Sao Paulo).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sao Paulo in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Sao Paulo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Bahia's games and 53% of Sao Paulo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bahia vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Bahia's recent games and 35% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sao Paulo defy the odds to beat Bahia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Bahia 0-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.28 xG and Sao Paulo 0.69 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bahia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Sao Paulo attack 0.58 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 51% | Draw 29% | Sao Paulo 20%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Sao Paulo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 49%, Sao Paulo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.17 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.