Flamengo 0-3 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico-MG at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Flamengo face Atletico-MG.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Atletico-MG at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A (matchday 36). Kick-off is Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 22:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Flamengo — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Flamengo's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atletico-MG stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Flamengo at 2.00 PPG versus Atletico-MG's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Flamengo have won 2, Atletico-MG 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended Flamengo 2–1 Atletico-MG — a Flamengo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 52% versus Atletico-MG 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | Atletico-MG 34%). Note also that Atletico-MG surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Flamengo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 0.87 xG and Atletico-MG 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.945 / defence 0.789 | Atletico-MG attack 1.035 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.130. Atletico-MG bring a tight defence (rating 0.711, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Flamengo's projected output down. Flamengo have a tight defence (rating 0.789), which is pulling Atletico-MG's projected output down. Data: built from Flamengo's last 73 games and Atletico-MG's last 73.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 32% | Draw 33% | Atletico-MG 35%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 3.13 | Draw 3.02 | Atletico-MG 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Flamengo's lower xG of 0.87 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico-MG are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Flamengo's last 10 home games and Atletico-MG's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Flamengo 40% (last 10 home games) | Atletico-MG 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, matchday 36 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 32% | Draw 33% | Atletico-MG 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Flamengo 0.87 / Atletico-MG 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.945 / def 0.789 | Atletico-MG attack 1.035 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Atletico-MG xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Flamengo vs Atletico-MG FAQs
What time does Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Flamengo 0 - 3 Atletico-MG.
Where is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG part of?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG is a Serie A fixture (matchday 36) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 32% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Flamengo and Atletico-MG will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Flamengo vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 0.94x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Flamengo's last 73 games and Atletico-MG's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
32%
3.13
33%
3.02
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Flamengo xG
Total xG
1.79
0.92
Atletico-MG xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 15.4 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Flamengo vs Atletico-MG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.92 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo's recent record stands at 36W 17D 20L from 73 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Atletico-MG, meanwhile, have gone 32W 22D 19L across 73 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.71 PPG, Atletico-MG on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 20W 8D 8L from their last 36 home games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico-MG's away record stands at 14W 14D 8L across their last 36 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.25 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Atletico-MG in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Atletico-MG
Current Season
Flamengo (Home) vs Atletico-MG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Flamengo
Current Season
Atletico-MG
Current Season
❓ Flamengo vs Atletico-MG Form FAQs
What form are Flamengo and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 36W 17D 20L in their last 73 games (1.71 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 32W 22D 19L in their last 73 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Atletico-MG away?
Flamengo's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.89 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 26 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Apr 2026, when Flamengo won Atletico-MG 0-4 Flamengo.
Flamengo's record when hosting Atletico-MG specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Flamengo
2
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Flamengo vs Atletico-MG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Flamengo have won 6, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Atletico-MG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2026: Flamengo 3-2 Atletico-MG.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 42%, Atletico-MG 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Flamengo) and 28% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Atletico-MG in 42%; Atletico-MG in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Flamengo vs Atletico-MG Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Flamengo and Atletico-MG matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Flamengo's recent matches and 42% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Flamengo and Atletico-MG matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 28% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Atletico-MG matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Flamengo's recent matches and 61% of Atletico-MG's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atletico-MG run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Flamengo 0-3 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 0.87 xG and Atletico-MG 0.92 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Atletico-MG outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.94 / defence 0.79 against Atletico-MG attack 1.03 / defence 0.71, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 32% | Draw 33% | Atletico-MG 35%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, Atletico-MG 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.71 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico-MG win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.