Palmeiras 4-0 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Palmeiras (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palmeiras face America Mineiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Parque plays host to Palmeiras versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Thursday 30 November 2023 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palmeiras have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palmeiras have posted 8W 0D 2L at Allianz Parque — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
America Mineiro's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Serie A this season, America Mineiro have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Palmeiras's favour (1.90 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Palmeiras, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against America Mineiro — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 4–1 with Palmeiras winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Palmeiras and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
America Mineiro half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 45% versus America Mineiro 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 49% | America Mineiro 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.16 xG and America Mineiro 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.232 / defence 0.715 | America Mineiro attack 1.049 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.152. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Palmeiras's defence rating of 0.715 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 Palmeiras games / 73 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 67% | Draw 19% | America Mineiro 14%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | America Mineiro 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 20% | America Mineiro 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Nov 2023, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 67% | Draw 19% | America Mineiro 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 51% | xG Palmeiras 2.16 / America Mineiro 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.232 / def 0.715 | America Mineiro attack 1.049 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.86
America Mineiro xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs America Mineiro kick off?
Palmeiras vs America Mineiro kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 30 November 2023 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Palmeiras 4 - 0 America Mineiro.
Where is Palmeiras vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs America Mineiro part of?
Palmeiras vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 67% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Palmeiras and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and America Mineiro?
Record (5 meetings): Palmeiras 4W | Draws 0 | America Mineiro 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and America Mineiro in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. America Mineiro (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (1.05x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.22
14%
7.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
3.02
0.86
America Mineiro xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
7.24
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
12%
8.67
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
2%
62.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.86 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palmeiras come into this having played 73 games, going 41W 21D 11L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 1.01 PPG from 73 outings (19W 17D 37L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Palmeiras's home form reads 25W 6D 5L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 0.81 points per game from 36 outings (6W 11D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palmeiras are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.08 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
America Mineiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 41W 21D 11L in their last 73 games (1.97 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 19W 17D 37L in their last 73 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or America Mineiro away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.25 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
0
Draws
1
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, America Mineiro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2023, when Palmeiras 4-0 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and America Mineiro?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 42%, America Mineiro 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Palmeiras) and 56% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; America Mineiro in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 64% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Palmeiras's recent games and 56% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 4-0 hammering of America Mineiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat America Mineiro 4-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.16 xG and America Mineiro 0.86 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. America Mineiro landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.23 / defence 0.71 against America Mineiro attack 1.05 / defence 1.38, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 67% | Draw 19% | America Mineiro 14%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 49%, America Mineiro 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
America Mineiro's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.01. Form held, and they took the win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.