America Mineiro 3-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this America Mineiro vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
America Mineiro host Bahia at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, America Mineiro stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
America Mineiro's home record at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Bahia — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Bahia's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bahia are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for America Mineiro, 1 for Bahia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Bahia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
America Mineiro trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Bahia trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 67% versus Bahia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (America Mineiro 69% | Bahia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.26 xG and Bahia 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.788 / defence 1.488 | Bahia attack 1.135 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.157. America Mineiro's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing America Mineiro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 America Mineiro games / 36 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 25% | Draw 22% | Bahia 53%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Bahia 1.89. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: America Mineiro 40% | Bahia 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 25% | Draw 22% | Bahia 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG America Mineiro 1.26 / Bahia 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.788 / def 1.488 | Bahia attack 1.135 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Bahia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Bahia xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Bahia kick off?
America Mineiro vs Bahia kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Bahia?
America Mineiro 3 - 2 Bahia.
Where is America Mineiro vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Bahia part of?
America Mineiro vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 25% chance of winning, Bahia a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both America Mineiro and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Bahia?
Record (3 meetings): America Mineiro 1W | Draws 1 | Bahia 1W.
What form are America Mineiro and Bahia in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Bahia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from America Mineiro's attack rating (0.79) and Bahia's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
25%
4.07
22%
4.55
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
3.21
1.95
Bahia xG
4.07
25%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
14%
7.05
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
3%
28.70
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for America Mineiro and 1.95 for Bahia, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
America Mineiro's recent record stands at 4W 9D 23L from 36 games, a 0.58 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 17L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bahia by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over America Mineiro heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, America Mineiro have managed 4W 2D 12L from 18 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 4W 3D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
America Mineiro are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.22 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: America Mineiro have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Bahia in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 4W 9D 23L in their last 36 games (0.58 PPG), while Bahia have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Bahia away?
Bahia's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 0.78 PPG; Bahia away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between America Mineiro and Bahia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
America Mineiro's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
America Mineiro
1
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Bahia?
From 4 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 2, Bahia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when America Mineiro 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Bahia?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 50%, Bahia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (America Mineiro) and 44% (Bahia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro have failed to score in 39% of games; Bahia in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 33% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of America Mineiro's matches and 44% of Bahia's.
Do America Mineiro and Bahia tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bahia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as America Mineiro defy the odds to beat Bahia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Bahia 3-2 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.26 xG and Bahia 1.95 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. America Mineiro beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.79 / defence 1.49 against Bahia attack 1.14 / defence 1.24, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 25% | Draw 22% | Bahia 53%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a America Mineiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 69%, Bahia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with America Mineiro winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.