Sao Paulo 0-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 35 as Sao Paulo welcome Cuiaba to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Sao Paulo's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sao Paulo 1.50 PPG, Cuiaba 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sao Paulo, 1 for Cuiaba and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with Cuiaba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sao Paulo trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cuiaba trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 53% versus Cuiaba 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 47% | Cuiaba 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 0.95 xG and Cuiaba 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.063 / defence 0.763 | Cuiaba attack 0.955 / defence 0.684. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.099. Cuiaba's defence strength of 0.684 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sao Paulo's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 Sao Paulo games / 72 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 37% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 29%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Cuiaba 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sao Paulo 40% | Cuiaba 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 37% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Sao Paulo 0.95 / Cuiaba 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.063 / def 0.763 | Cuiaba attack 0.955 / def 0.684 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Cuiaba xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Sao Paulo 0 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba part of?
Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 37% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Sao Paulo and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
Record (5 meetings): Sao Paulo 1W | Draws 3 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Cuiaba in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (1.06) and Cuiaba's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
37%
2.69
34%
2.94
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
1.76
0.80
Cuiaba xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 13.8 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.80 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sao Paulo's recent record stands at 25W 25D 22L from 72 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 30L across 72 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sao Paulo on 1.39 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sao Paulo have managed 20W 8D 8L from 36 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 12W 5D 19L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.93 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 25W 25D 22L in their last 72 games (1.39 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 23W 19D 30L in their last 72 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Cuiaba away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.89 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Cuiaba have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
4
Draws
3
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Cuiaba have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2024, when Cuiaba 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 47%, Cuiaba 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sao Paulo) and 33% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cuiaba in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 33% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 33% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sao Paulo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 35, as Sao Paulo and Cuiaba drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 0.95 xG and Cuiaba 0.80 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sao Paulo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cuiaba landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.06 / defence 0.76 against Cuiaba attack 0.95 / defence 0.68, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 37% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 29%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 47%, Cuiaba 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.39 PPG, Cuiaba 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.