RB Bragantino 1-2 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC meet at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 30 November 2023 at 23:30 UK time.
Form
RB Bragantino (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, RB Bragantino have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fortaleza EC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortaleza EC away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. RB Bragantino's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Fortaleza EC's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for RB Bragantino, 2 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended RB Bragantino 3–0 Fortaleza EC — a RB Bragantino win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 48% versus Fortaleza EC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 44% | Fortaleza EC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.55 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.094 / defence 0.792 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.782 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.144. Fortaleza EC's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. RB Bragantino have a tight defence (rating 0.792), which is pulling Fortaleza EC's projected output down. Data: built from RB Bragantino's last 73 games and Fortaleza EC's last 73.
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 57% | Draw 26% | Fortaleza EC 17%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.74 | Draw 3.88 | Fortaleza EC 5.92. The model has a clear lean to RB Bragantino (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (RB Bragantino's last 10 home games and Fortaleza EC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RB Bragantino 40% (last 10 home games) | Fortaleza EC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, matchday 36 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Thursday 30 November 2023 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 57% | Draw 26% | Fortaleza EC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG RB Bragantino 1.55 / Fortaleza EC 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.094 / def 0.792 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.782 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Fortaleza EC xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC FAQs
What time does RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Thursday 30 November 2023 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
RB Bragantino 1 - 2 Fortaleza EC.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC part of?
RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC is a Serie A fixture (matchday 36) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 57% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.09) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.78x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from RB Bragantino's last 73 games and Fortaleza EC's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
57%
1.74
26%
3.88
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.26
0.71
Fortaleza EC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
4%
27.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.71 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 27W 22D 24L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 27W 19D 27L from 73 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.37 for Fortaleza EC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.78 PPG from their last 36 home games (18W 10D 8L).
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 12W 5D 19L from their last 36 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.18 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
RB Bragantino (Home) vs Fortaleza EC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC Form FAQs
What form are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 27W 22D 24L in their last 73 games (1.41 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 27W 19D 27L in their last 73 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Fortaleza EC away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.78 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.14 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 26 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fortaleza EC have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won Fortaleza EC 6-0 RB Bragantino on 9 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
6
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RB Bragantino have won 3, Fortaleza EC have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 November 2025: RB Bragantino 0-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 44%, Fortaleza EC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (RB Bragantino) and 44% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 50% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 44% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 69% of Fortaleza EC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat RB Bragantino 1-2 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.55 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.71 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.09 / defence 0.79 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.78 / defence 1.10, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 57% | Draw 26% | Fortaleza EC 17%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 44%, Fortaleza EC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.41 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.