RB Bragantino 1-2 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC meet at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 30 November 2023 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
RB Bragantino (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, RB Bragantino have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortaleza EC away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. RB Bragantino's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Fortaleza EC's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for RB Bragantino, 2 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 3–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 48% versus Fortaleza EC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 44% | Fortaleza EC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.55 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.094 / defence 0.792 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.782 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.144. RB Bragantino's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 RB Bragantino games / 73 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 57% | Draw 26% | Fortaleza EC 17%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Fortaleza EC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to RB Bragantino (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 40% | Fortaleza EC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Nov 2023, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 57% | Draw 26% | Fortaleza EC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 40% | xG RB Bragantino 1.55 / Fortaleza EC 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.094 / def 0.792 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.782 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Fortaleza EC xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:30 on Thursday 30 November 2023 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
RB Bragantino 1 - 2 Fortaleza EC.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC part of?
RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 57% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
Record (5 meetings): RB Bragantino 3W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 2W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.09) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.78x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
57%
1.74
26%
3.88
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.26
0.71
Fortaleza EC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
4%
27.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.71 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 27W 22D 24L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 27W 19D 27L from 73 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.37 for Fortaleza EC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.78 PPG from 36 outings (18W 10D 8L).
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 12W 5D 19L from 36 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.18 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 27W 22D 24L in their last 73 games (1.41 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 27W 19D 27L in their last 73 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Fortaleza EC away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.78 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.14 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fortaleza EC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
6
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Fortaleza EC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2025, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 44%, Fortaleza EC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (RB Bragantino) and 44% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 50% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 44% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat RB Bragantino 1-2 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.55 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.71 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.09 / defence 0.79 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.78 / defence 1.10, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 57% | Draw 26% | Fortaleza EC 17%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 44%, Fortaleza EC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.41 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.