Juventude 1-2 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Alfredo Jaconi plays host to Juventude versus Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 June 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Form
Juventude (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Juventude's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
Santos's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Santos have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Juventude against 1.80 for Santos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Juventude 1W, Santos 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 3–0 with Juventude winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 50% versus Santos 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 34% | Santos 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.02 xG and Santos 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.863 / defence 1.270 | Santos attack 0.930 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 0.987. Data: 49 Juventude games / 49 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 31% | Draw 31% | Santos 38%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Santos 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santos at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 40% | Santos 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jun 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 31% | Draw 31% | Santos 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Juventude 1.02 / Santos 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.863 / def 1.270 | Santos attack 0.930 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.240 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Santos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Santos xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Santos kick off?
Juventude vs Santos kicked off at 01:30 on Wednesday 15 June 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Santos?
Juventude 1 - 2 Santos.
Where is Juventude vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Santos part of?
Juventude vs Santos is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 31% chance of winning, Santos a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Juventude and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Santos?
Record (2 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 1 | Santos 0W.
What form are Juventude and Santos in?
Juventude (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Santos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.86x the league average against Santos's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.93x) against Juventude's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
31%
3.25
31%
3.20
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.19
1.17
Santos xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juventude and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Juventude and 1.17 for Santos, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventude come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 13D 14L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.32 PPG from 38 outings (12W 14D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Juventude against 1.32 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Juventude's home form reads 9W 6D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (3W 8D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventude are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 0.92 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Santos in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Santos in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Santos have gone 12W 14D 12L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Santos away?
Juventude's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.74 PPG; Santos away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Juventude or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Santos in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Santos go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventude won 3-0 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Juventude
1
Draws
4
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Santos?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Santos have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2025, when Juventude 0-3 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Santos?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventude see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Santos see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 37%, Santos 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Juventude and 37% for Santos.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Santos in 32%; Santos in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Juventude's recent matches and 42% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Juventude's recent games and 37% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Santos edge out Juventude 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Juventude 1-2 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.02 xG and Santos 1.17 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Santos outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.86 / defence 1.27 against Santos attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 31% | Draw 31% | Santos 38%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 34%, Santos 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.21 PPG, Santos 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.