Goias 1-2 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Goias and Internacional meet at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 16 June 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Form
Internacional have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Internacional have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 0.93 xG and Internacional 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.948 / defence 1.041 | Internacional attack 0.984 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 0.991. Internacional's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Goias games / 49 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 31% | Draw 34% | Internacional 35%. Fair-value odds: Goias 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Internacional 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Internacional at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jun 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 31% | Draw 34% | Internacional 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Goias 0.93 / Internacional 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.948 / def 1.041 | Internacional attack 0.984 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.251 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: Internacional (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Internacional xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Internacional kick off?
Goias vs Internacional kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Internacional?
Goias 1 - 2 Internacional.
Where is Goias vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Internacional part of?
Goias vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 31% chance of winning, Internacional a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Goias and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Internacional?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Goias and Internacional in?
Internacional (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Internacional away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 0.20 / GA 0.80 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Goias's attack rating (0.95) and Internacional's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.98x) against Goias's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
31%
3.23
34%
2.96
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Goias xG
Total xG
1.95
1.01
Internacional xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 14.5 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Goias and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Goias and 1.01 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Pre-Season
Internacional
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Goias have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Goias
1
Draws
3
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Internacional?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 0, Internacional have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2023, when Goias 0-0 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Goias 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Goias 1-2 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 0.93 xG and Internacional 1.01 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Internacional outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Internacional attack 0.98 / defence 0.79, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 31% | Draw 34% | Internacional 35%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.