Flamengo 2-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Flamengo at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Thursday 16 June 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Flamengo have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Flamengo. A 0.60 PPG lead over Cuiaba (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Flamengo 1W, Cuiaba 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Cuiaba 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 55% | Cuiaba 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.28 xG and Cuiaba 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.905 / defence 0.927 | Cuiaba attack 0.987 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 0.991. Data: 49 Flamengo games / 49 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 44% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 25%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Cuiaba 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 20% | Cuiaba 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jun 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 44% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Flamengo 1.28 / Cuiaba 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.905 / def 0.927 | Cuiaba attack 0.987 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.251 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cuiaba xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Cuiaba kick off?
Flamengo vs Cuiaba kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Flamengo 2 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Flamengo vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Cuiaba part of?
Flamengo vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 44% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Flamengo and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Cuiaba?
Record (2 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Cuiaba in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (0.91) and Cuiaba's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.99x) against Flamengo's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.24
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.19
0.91
Cuiaba xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
7%
14.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.91 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Flamengo's recent record stands at 21W 8D 9L from 38 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 11L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 13W 1D 5L from 19 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 3W 11D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.89 scored and 0.97 conceded. Flamengo's scoring rate against Cuiaba's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Cuiaba in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 games (1.87 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Cuiaba away?
Flamengo's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.11 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cuiaba won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Cuiaba have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Cuiaba?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 32%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Flamengo) and 32% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cuiaba in 42%; Flamengo have failed to score in 26% of games; Cuiaba in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Flamengo's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 32% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Cuiaba 2-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.28 xG and Cuiaba 0.91 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cuiaba landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.91 / defence 0.93 against Cuiaba attack 0.99 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 44% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 25%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 55%, Cuiaba 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.