Union St. Gilloise 2-1 RAAL La Louvière – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise host RAAL La Louvière at Stade Joseph Marien in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union St. Gilloise have gone 4W 5D 1L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, RAAL La Louvière stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, RAAL La Louvière have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for RAAL La Louvière and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Union St. Gilloise 0–0 RAAL La Louvière — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
RAAL La Louvière trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 46% versus RAAL La Louvière 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 46% | RAAL La Louvière 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.75 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.179 / defence 0.502 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.944 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.276. Union St. Gilloise have a tight defence (rating 0.502), which is pulling RAAL La Louvière's projected output down. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 53 games and RAAL La Louvière's last 23.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 65% | Draw 23% | RAAL La Louvière 12%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.54 | Draw 4.36 | RAAL La Louvière 8.24. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (65%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 20% (last 10 home games) | RAAL La Louvière 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 65% | Draw 23% | RAAL La Louvière 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.75 / RAAL La Louvière 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.179 / def 0.502 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.944 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.60
RAAL La Louvière xG
38%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 RAAL La Louvière.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 65% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and RAAL La Louvière will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.18x the league average against RAAL La Louvière's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RAAL La Louvière's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 53 games and RAAL La Louvière's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
65%
1.54
23%
4.36
12%
8.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.35
0.60
RAAL La Louvière xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
8.24
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
35%
2.82
2%
47.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.60 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 52 games, going 35W 12D 5L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, RAAL La Louvière sit at 1.65 PPG from 52 outings (23W 17D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of RAAL La Louvière — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 21W 3D 2L across their last 26 home games, a 2.54 PPG return.
Away from home, RAAL La Louvière have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 26 away games (11W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 1.38 scored and 0.98 conceded. Union St. Gilloise's scoring rate against RAAL La Louvière's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs RAAL La Louvière (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 35W 12D 5L in their last 52 games (2.25 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 23W 17D 12L in their last 52 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.54 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or RAAL La Louvière been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, RAAL La Louvière in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2025. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and RAAL La Louvière?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 1, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Union St. Gilloise 2-1 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and RAAL La Louvière?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 38%, RAAL La Louvière 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union St. Gilloise) and 58% (RAAL La Louvière).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and RAAL La Louvière matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 69% of RAAL La Louvière's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union St. Gilloise and RAAL La Louvière matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 58% of RAAL La Louvière's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and RAAL La Louvière matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 69% of RAAL La Louvière's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out RAAL La Louvière 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat RAAL La Louvière 2-1 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.75 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.60 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.18 / defence 0.50 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.94 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 65% | Draw 23% | RAAL La Louvière 12%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 46%, RAAL La Louvière 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.65. That form edge translated into the three points. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.