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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Charleroi at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Charleroi welcome Cercle Brugge to Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Charleroi's home record at Stade du Pays de Charleroi: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cercle Brugge's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Charleroi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 4, Cercle Brugge 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 3–2 with Charleroi winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Charleroi in-play tendencies (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Cercle Brugge 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Cercle Brugge 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.03 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.013 / defence 0.844 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.961 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.231. Data: 53 Charleroi games / 53 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 31% | Cercle Brugge 34%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Cercle Brugge 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Cercle Brugge 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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