KVC Westerlo 0-4 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St. Truiden (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KVC Westerlo face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Het Kuipje plays host to KVC Westerlo versus St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KVC Westerlo have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Het Kuipje, KVC Westerlo have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
St. Truiden (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, St. Truiden are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to St. Truiden, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 3–0 with KVC Westerlo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St. Truiden have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
KVC Westerlo — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KVC Westerlo 58% and St. Truiden 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KVC Westerlo 51% | St. Truiden 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KVC Westerlo 1.24 xG and St. Truiden 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KVC Westerlo attack 0.971 / defence 0.894 | St. Truiden attack 1.182 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.214. Data: 53 KVC Westerlo games / 53 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 35% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 37%. Fair-value odds: KVC Westerlo 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | St. Truiden 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: KVC Westerlo 20% | St. Truiden 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Het Kuipje • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 35% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG KVC Westerlo 1.24 / St. Truiden 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: KVC Westerlo attack 0.971 / def 0.894 | St. Truiden attack 1.182 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
KVC Westerlo xG
Expected Goals
1.28
St. Truiden xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden kick off?
KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Het Kuipje.
What was the final score in KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden?
KVC Westerlo 0 - 4 St. Truiden.
Where is KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Het Kuipje.
What competition is KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden part of?
KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives KVC Westerlo a 35% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both KVC Westerlo and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between KVC Westerlo and St. Truiden?
Record (9 meetings): KVC Westerlo 2W | Draws 2 | St. Truiden 5W.
What form are KVC Westerlo and St. Truiden in?
KVC Westerlo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
KVC Westerlo's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.18x) against KVC Westerlo's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.62
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
KVC Westerlo xG
Total xG
2.52
1.28
St. Truiden xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are KVC Westerlo and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for KVC Westerlo and 1.28 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KVC Westerlo's recent record stands at 17W 19D 23L from 59 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 21L across 59 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for KVC Westerlo against 1.46 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KVC Westerlo have managed 10W 10D 9L from 29 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 9W 6D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
KVC Westerlo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.41 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 66%.
Last 59 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KVC Westerlo
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KVC Westerlo and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
KVC Westerlo have gone 17W 19D 23L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 24W 14D 21L in their last 59 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KVC Westerlo at home or St. Truiden away?
KVC Westerlo's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KVC Westerlo at home: 1.38 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 0-4 on 6 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KVC Westerlo have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
KVC Westerlo
2
Draws
6
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KVC Westerlo and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, KVC Westerlo have won 2, St. Truiden have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KVC Westerlo and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when KVC Westerlo 0-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between KVC Westerlo and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 59% for KVC Westerlo, 72% for St. Truiden — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (KVC Westerlo) and 62% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KVC Westerlo home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KVC Westerlo play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of KVC Westerlo's games and 72% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KVC Westerlo vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of KVC Westerlo's matches and 62% of St. Truiden's.
Do KVC Westerlo and St. Truiden tend to score early?
KVC Westerlo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St. Truiden run riot with a 0-4 hammering of KVC Westerlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat KVC Westerlo 0-4 at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 1.24 xG and St. Truiden 1.28 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. KVC Westerlo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. St. Truiden outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against St. Truiden attack 1.18 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 35% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 37%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 51%, St. Truiden 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St. Truiden's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.19 PPG, St. Truiden 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.