🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Maurice Dufrasnestadion plays host to Standard Liege versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Standard Liege have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Standard Liege's home record at Maurice Dufrasnestadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Union St. Gilloise arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Union St. Gilloise hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Union St. Gilloise winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Standard Liege — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 33% versus Union St. Gilloise 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Standard Liege 34% | Union St. Gilloise 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 0.82 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.816 / defence 1.029 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.834 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.302. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Standard Liege games / 54 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Standard Liege 26% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 42%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Union St. Gilloise 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 40% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights