Anderlecht 0-0 RAAL La Louvière – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RAAL La Louvière make the trip to Lotto Park to face Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Anderlecht (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 6W 3D 1L at Lotto Park — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lotto Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Anderlecht are significantly better at Lotto Park than their overall form suggests.
RAAL La Louvière's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RAAL La Louvière's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Anderlecht against 0.70 for RAAL La Louvière. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Anderlecht lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Anderlecht winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
RAAL La Louvière — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 34% versus RAAL La Louvière 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 43% | RAAL La Louvière 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.50 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 0.984 / defence 0.749 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.962 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.303. Anderlecht's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Anderlecht games / 24 RAAL La Louvière games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 50% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 23%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | RAAL La Louvière 4.35. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Anderlecht 40% | RAAL La Louvière 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 50% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Anderlecht 1.50 / RAAL La Louvière 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 0.984 / def 0.749 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.962 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
0.94
RAAL La Louvière xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière?
Anderlecht 0 - 0 RAAL La Louvière.
Where is Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 50% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Anderlecht and RAAL La Louvière will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and RAAL La Louvière?
Record (1 meetings): Anderlecht 1W | Draws 0 | RAAL La Louvière 0W.
What form are Anderlecht and RAAL La Louvière in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Anderlecht's attack rating (0.98) and RAAL La Louvière's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RAAL La Louvière's attack (0.96x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.65
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.44
0.94
RAAL La Louvière xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
5%
19.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.94 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Anderlecht come into this having played 53 games, going 24W 8D 21L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RAAL La Louvière sit at 1.62 PPG from 53 outings (23W 17D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for RAAL La Louvière is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.62 for RAAL La Louvière. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Anderlecht's home form reads 14W 4D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, RAAL La Louvière have taken 1.46 points per game from 26 outings (10W 8D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Anderlecht are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 24W 8D 21L in their last 53 games (1.51 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 23W 17D 13L in their last 53 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.77 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or RAAL La Louvière been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, RAAL La Louvière in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RAAL La Louvière — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Anderlecht
1
Draws
0
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and RAAL La Louvière?
From 3 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 2, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Anderlecht 2-1 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and RAAL La Louvière?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 42%, RAAL La Louvière 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Anderlecht) and 62% (RAAL La Louvière). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play RAAL La Louvière?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Anderlecht's games and 73% of RAAL La Louvière's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louvière usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Anderlecht's matches and 62% of RAAL La Louvière's.
Do Anderlecht and RAAL La Louvière tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, RAAL La Louvière in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Anderlecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 25, as Anderlecht and RAAL La Louvière drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.50 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.94 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Anderlecht fell 1.5 short of their projected output. RAAL La Louvière landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 0.98 / defence 0.75 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 50% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 23%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 43%, RAAL La Louvière 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.51 PPG, RAAL La Louvière 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.