Patro Eisden 1-4 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SK Beveren at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Patro Eisden and SK Beveren meet at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Patro Eisden's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Patro Eisden's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

SK Beveren have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, SK Beveren have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. SK Beveren are 0.90 PPG clear of Patro Eisden over their recent games (2.80 vs 1.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Patro Eisden, 2 for SK Beveren and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Patro Eisden 1–2 SK Beveren — a SK Beveren win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Patro Eisden half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 56% versus SK Beveren 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 48% | SK Beveren 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.18 xG and SK Beveren 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.029 / defence 0.970 | SK Beveren attack 1.462 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.332. SK Beveren have an above-average attack rating of 1.462, which lifts their away xG to 1.89. Data: built from Patro Eisden's last 53 games and SK Beveren's last 52.

Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 24% | Draw 22% | SK Beveren 54%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 4.24 | Draw 4.46 | SK Beveren 1.85. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Patro Eisden's last 10 home games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Patro Eisden 40% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights