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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates RWDM at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs RWDM encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Beerschot VA welcome RWDM to Olympisch Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Olympisch Stadion, Beerschot VA have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Beerschot VA are significantly better at Olympisch Stadion than their overall form suggests.

RWDM — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.

RWDM's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beerschot VA 1.10 PPG, RWDM 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Beerschot VA, 3 for RWDM and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Beerschot VA winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Beerschot VA trading profile (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

RWDM trading profile (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 54% versus RWDM 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 56% | RWDM 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.17 xG and RWDM 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.923 / defence 0.929 | RWDM attack 0.952 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.332. Data: 24 Beerschot VA games / 53 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 36% | Draw 28% | RWDM 36%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | RWDM 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 60% | RWDM 40%.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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