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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as SK Beveren welcome Olympic Charleroi to Freethiel Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SK Beveren at Freethiel Stadion this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Olympic Charleroi — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Olympic Charleroi have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, SK Beveren have the edge — a 2.30 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Olympic Charleroi in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SK Beveren, 0 for Olympic Charleroi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 5–0 with SK Beveren winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SK Beveren trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Olympic Charleroi trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 58% versus Olympic Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 58% | Olympic Charleroi 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.84 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.174 / defence 0.695 | Olympic Charleroi attack 1.013 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.358. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.695 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 SK Beveren games / 24 Olympic Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SK Beveren 58% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 19%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Olympic Charleroi 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Olympic Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.

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