Francs Borains 0-2 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SK Beveren (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Francs Borains face SK Beveren.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Francs Borains welcome SK Beveren to Stade Robert Urbain. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's home record at Stade Robert Urbain: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Francs Borains have won 1, SK Beveren 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with SK Beveren winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SK Beveren trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 47% versus SK Beveren 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 53% | SK Beveren 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.94 xG and SK Beveren 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.763 / defence 0.743 | SK Beveren attack 1.451 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.289. Francs Borains's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SK Beveren have an above-average attack strength of 1.451 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Francs Borains's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Francs Borains games / 51 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 26% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 47%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | SK Beveren 2.13. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 10% | SK Beveren 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 26% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Francs Borains 0.94 / SK Beveren 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.763 / def 0.743 | SK Beveren attack 1.451 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.39
SK Beveren xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs SK Beveren kick off?
Francs Borains vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Francs Borains 0 - 2 SK Beveren.
Where is Francs Borains vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs SK Beveren part of?
Francs Borains vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 26% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Francs Borains and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and SK Beveren?
Record (5 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 1 | SK Beveren 3W.
What form are Francs Borains and SK Beveren in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. SK Beveren (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
26%
3.91
27%
3.67
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.33
1.39
SK Beveren xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
6%
15.69
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.39 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Francs Borains have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 15W 10D 26L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 32W 11D 8L from 51 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Francs Borains.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Francs Borains have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 15W 5D 5L from 25 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Francs Borains are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.73 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 15W 10D 26L in their last 51 games (1.08 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 32W 11D 8L in their last 51 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.08 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Francs Borains and SK Beveren runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when SK Beveren won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Francs Borains's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
1
Draws
4
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and SK Beveren?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, SK Beveren have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Francs Borains 0-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 44%, SK Beveren 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Francs Borains) and 56% (SK Beveren).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SK Beveren in 40%; Francs Borains have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 48% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Francs Borains's recent games and 56% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Francs Borains 0-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.94 xG and SK Beveren 1.39 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.76 / defence 0.74 against SK Beveren attack 1.45 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 26% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 47%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 53%, SK Beveren 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SK Beveren's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.