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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours SK Beveren (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Francs Borains face SK Beveren.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Francs Borains welcome SK Beveren to Stade Robert Urbain. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Francs Borains's home record at Stade Robert Urbain: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Francs Borains have won 1, SK Beveren 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with SK Beveren winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Francs Borains trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

SK Beveren trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 47% versus SK Beveren 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 53% | SK Beveren 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.94 xG and SK Beveren 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.763 / defence 0.743 | SK Beveren attack 1.451 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.289. Francs Borains's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SK Beveren have an above-average attack strength of 1.451 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Francs Borains's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Francs Borains games / 51 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Francs Borains 26% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 47%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | SK Beveren 2.13. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 10% | SK Beveren 70% BTTS from recent games.

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