Lokeren-Temse 1-2 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SK Beveren make the trip to Daknamstadion to face Lokeren-Temse in Challenger Pro League (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Lokeren-Temse (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lokeren-Temse's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SK Beveren have collected 3.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SK Beveren away from home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, SK Beveren are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Lokeren-Temse's last 10 home games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Lokeren-Temse's games and 80% of SK Beveren's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, SK Beveren edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Lokeren-Temse 0–1 SK Beveren — a SK Beveren win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lokeren-Temse half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 55% versus SK Beveren 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 46% | SK Beveren 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.12 xG and SK Beveren 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.999 / defence 1.096 | SK Beveren attack 1.543 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.376. SK Beveren have an above-average attack rating of 1.543, which lifts their away xG to 2.33. Data: built from Lokeren-Temse's last 54 games and SK Beveren's last 54.
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 17% | Draw 19% | SK Beveren 64%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 5.92 | Draw 5.34 | SK Beveren 1.55. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (64%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.12 / 2.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lokeren-Temse's last 10 home games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lokeren-Temse 80% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 17% | Draw 19% | SK Beveren 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Lokeren-Temse 1.12 / SK Beveren 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.999 / def 1.096 | SK Beveren attack 1.543 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
2.33
SK Beveren xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren FAQs
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren?
Lokeren-Temse 1 - 2 SK Beveren.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 17% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 64% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lokeren-Temse's attack at 1.00x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (1.54x) against Lokeren-Temse's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 2.33.
These ratings are built from Lokeren-Temse's last 54 games and SK Beveren's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
17%
5.92
19%
5.34
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
3.45
2.33
SK Beveren xG
5.92
17%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
10%
10.27
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
2%
60.83
21%
4.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 2.33 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Lokeren-Temse have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 21W 16D 19L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
SK Beveren's form line: 36W 12D 8L from 56 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lokeren-Temse.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lokeren-Temse have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 28 home games (8W 11D 9L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 17W 6D 5L from their last 28 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.79 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
Lokeren-Temse (Home) vs SK Beveren (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren Form FAQs
What form are Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 games (1.41 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 36W 12D 8L in their last 56 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokeren-Temse at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokeren-Temse at home: 1.25 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Lokeren-Temse or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokeren-Temse have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: SK Beveren have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lokeren-Temse
0
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lokeren-Temse have won 1, SK Beveren have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Lokeren-Temse 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 54%, SK Beveren 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lokeren-Temse) and 57% (SK Beveren).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 39%; Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 50% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 57% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 75% of SK Beveren's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Lokeren-Temse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Lokeren-Temse 1-2 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.12 xG and SK Beveren 2.33 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against SK Beveren attack 1.54 / defence 0.85, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 17% | Draw 19% | SK Beveren 64%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 46%, SK Beveren 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.