🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates SK Beveren at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs RWDM encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Freethiel Stadion plays host to SK Beveren versus RWDM in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

SK Beveren have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Freethiel Stadion this term (2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

RWDM's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.

RWDM's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form ledger tips toward SK Beveren. A 1.80 PPG lead over RWDM (3.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — SK Beveren lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with SK Beveren winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

RWDM half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 49% versus RWDM 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 54% | RWDM 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.40 xG and RWDM 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.180 / defence 0.632 | RWDM attack 0.947 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.350. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.632 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 SK Beveren games / 56 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 27% | RWDM 22%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | RWDM 4.55. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 60% | RWDM 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights