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Poisson rates RWDM at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM encounter.

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Match Analysis

Olympic Charleroi host RWDM at Stade de la Neuville in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Olympic Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade de la Neuville, Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 2D 8L this season (10 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

RWDM — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.

RWDM's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RWDM — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, RWDM 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Olympic Charleroi in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

RWDM in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 48% versus RWDM 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 56% | RWDM 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.66 xG and RWDM 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.516 / defence 1.384 | RWDM attack 0.911 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.386. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.516 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Olympic Charleroi games / 55 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 14% | Draw 23% | RWDM 64%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 7.14 | Draw 4.35 | RWDM 1.56. The model has a clear lean to RWDM (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates RWDM as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 30% | RWDM 50% BTTS from recent games.

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