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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Lommel United host Kortrijk at Soevereinstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Lommel United have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 4W 2D 4L at Soevereinstadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Soevereinstadion this season.

Kortrijk — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kortrijk's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.90 PPG versus Kortrijk's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Kortrijk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Lommel United's 0 victories.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–4 with Kortrijk winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Kortrijk have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Lommel United in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 58% versus Kortrijk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 54% | Kortrijk 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.54 xG and Kortrijk 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.143 / defence 0.932 | Kortrijk attack 0.662 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.386. Data: 55 Lommel United games / 25 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lommel United 53% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 21%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Kortrijk 4.76. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 60% | Kortrijk 50%.

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