Kortrijk 3-1 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Olympic Charleroi travel to Guldensporen Stadion to take on Kortrijk in Challenger Pro League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kortrijk stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Kortrijk's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Kortrijk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Olympic Charleroi have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Olympic Charleroi's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Kortrijk have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Kortrijk's games and 70% of Olympic Charleroi's (from Kortrijk's last 10 home games and Olympic Charleroi's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Kortrijk have won 1, Olympic Charleroi 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Kortrijk 3–0 Olympic Charleroi — a Kortrijk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kortrijk in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Olympic Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 56% versus Olympic Charleroi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 48% | Olympic Charleroi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 2.23 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 1.420 / defence 0.919 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.936 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.372. Kortrijk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.420 — their 2.23 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Kortrijk's last 26 games and Olympic Charleroi's last 27.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 61% | Draw 20% | Olympic Charleroi 19%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 1.64 | Draw 5.07 | Olympic Charleroi 5.20. The model has a clear lean to Kortrijk (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.23 / 1.18) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kortrijk's last 10 home games and Olympic Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kortrijk 60% (last 10 home games) | Olympic Charleroi 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Guldensporen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 61% | Draw 20% | Olympic Charleroi 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Kortrijk 2.23 / Olympic Charleroi 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 1.420 / def 0.919 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.936 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Olympic Charleroi xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi FAQs
What time does Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi kick off?
Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Guldensporen Stadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi?
Kortrijk 3 - 1 Olympic Charleroi.
Where is Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporen Stadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi part of?
Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 61% chance of winning, Olympic Charleroi a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kortrijk and Olympic Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 1.42x the league average against Olympic Charleroi's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Olympic Charleroi's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kortrijk's last 26 games and Olympic Charleroi's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
61%
1.64
20%
5.07
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
3.41
1.18
Olympic Charleroi xG
1.64
61%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
11%
9.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
2%
48.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Olympic Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.18 for Olympic Charleroi, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kortrijk come into this having played 27 games, going 17W 5D 5L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Olympic Charleroi sit at 0.59 PPG from 27 outings (3W 7D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Kortrijk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.48 PPG clear of Olympic Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kortrijk's home form reads 11W 1D 1L across their last 13 home games, a 2.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — Kortrijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Olympic Charleroi have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 13 away games (3W 5D 5L). That's actually stronger than their 0.59 PPG overall record — Olympic Charleroi travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Olympic Charleroi are on 0.85 scored and 2.04 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
Kortrijk (Home) vs Olympic Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kortrijk
Blended
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
❓ Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Kortrijk and Olympic Charleroi in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 17W 5D 5L in their last 27 games (2.07 PPG), while Olympic Charleroi have gone 3W 7D 17L in their last 27 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Olympic Charleroi away?
Kortrijk's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 2.62 PPG; Olympic Charleroi away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2025. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
0
Draws
0
Olympic Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Olympic Charleroi?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Kortrijk have won 2, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Olympic Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Kortrijk 3-1 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Olympic Charleroi?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 54%, Olympic Charleroi 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Kortrijk) and 54% (Olympic Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Olympic Charleroi in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Olympic Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kortrijk vs Olympic Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kortrijk and Olympic Charleroi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Kortrijk's games and 62% of Olympic Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kortrijk and Olympic Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kortrijk's recent games and 54% of Olympic Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Olympic Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 85% of Olympic Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Olympic Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Olympic Charleroi 3-1 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 2.23 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.18 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 1.42 / defence 0.92 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 61% | Draw 20% | Olympic Charleroi 19%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 48%, Olympic Charleroi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.59. Form held, and they took the win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.