K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Patro Eisden travel to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion to take on K. Lierse S.K.. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, K. Lierse S.K. stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Patro Eisden's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Patro Eisden are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. K. Lierse S.K. register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Patro Eisden in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, K. Lierse S.K. have won 2, Patro Eisden 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Patro Eisden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Patro Eisden trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 50% versus Patro Eisden 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Patro Eisden 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.10 xG and Patro Eisden 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.890 / defence 1.076 | Patro Eisden attack 0.959 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.375. Data: 56 K. Lierse S.K. games / 57 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 29% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 44%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Patro Eisden 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 60% | Patro Eisden 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 29% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.10 / Patro Eisden 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.890 / def 1.076 | Patro Eisden attack 0.959 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Patro Eisden xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden?
K. Lierse S.K. 1 - 2 Patro Eisden.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 29% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden?
Record (5 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 2W | Draws 1 | Patro Eisden 2W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from K. Lierse S.K.'s attack rating (0.89) and Patro Eisden's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
29%
3.42
26%
3.78
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.52
1.42
Patro Eisden xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
14.15
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.42 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 56 games, going 20W 13D 23L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Patro Eisden sit at 1.64 PPG from 56 outings (25W 17D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: K. Lierse S.K. on 1.30 PPG, Patro Eisden on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 12W 7D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Patro Eisden have taken 1.61 points per game from 28 outings (12W 9D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.52 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Patro Eisden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 20W 13D 23L in their last 56 games (1.30 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 25W 17D 14L in their last 56 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.54 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.61 PPG.
Have K. Lierse S.K. or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
K. Lierse S.K. have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2024, when Patro Eisden won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
3
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden?
From 7 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, Patro Eisden have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when K. Lierse S.K. 2-1 Patro Eisden.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 50%, Patro Eisden 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (K. Lierse S.K.) and 46% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: K. Lierse S.K. keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Patro Eisden in 36%; K. Lierse S.K. have failed to score in 29% of games; Patro Eisden in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 54% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent games and 46% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out K. Lierse S.K. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.10 xG and Patro Eisden 1.42 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Patro Eisden attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 29% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 44%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 50%, Patro Eisden 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.30 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.