Francs Borains 4-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 38%, yet in-form Kortrijk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Francs Borains vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Francs Borains host Kortrijk at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Francs Borains — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Francs Borains are significantly better at Stade Robert Urbain than their overall form suggests.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Kortrijk's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Francs Borains's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Francs Borains have won 0, Kortrijk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Kortrijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 46% versus Kortrijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 51% | Kortrijk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.90 xG and Kortrijk 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.677 / defence 0.765 | Kortrijk attack 0.681 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.387. Francs Borains's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Francs Borains's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Francs Borains games / 27 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 38% | Draw 35% | Kortrijk 28%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Kortrijk 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Kortrijk's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Francs Borains are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kortrijk (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Francs Borains offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 10% | Kortrijk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Kortrijk | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 38% | Draw 35% | Kortrijk 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Francs Borains 0.90 / Kortrijk 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.677 / def 0.765 | Kortrijk attack 0.681 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Kortrijk xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Kortrijk kick off?
Francs Borains vs Kortrijk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Kortrijk?
Francs Borains 4 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Francs Borains vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Kortrijk part of?
Francs Borains vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 38% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Francs Borains and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Kortrijk?
Record (1 meetings): Francs Borains 0W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are Francs Borains and Kortrijk in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
38%
2.65
35%
2.87
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
1.62
0.72
Kortrijk xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.27
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.7 | 14.3 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.4%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Francs Borains and 0.72 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 16W 11D 30L from 57 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 26W 10D 21L across 57 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kortrijk by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Francs Borains heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 8W 6D 14L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 9W 6D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Francs Borains are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.49 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Current Season
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 16W 11D 30L in their last 57 games (1.04 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 26W 10D 21L in their last 57 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Kortrijk away?
Kortrijk's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.07 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Francs Borains and Kortrijk runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
0
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Kortrijk?
From 2 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, Kortrijk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Francs Borains 4-1 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 39%, Kortrijk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Francs Borains) and 57% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 39% of games; Kortrijk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 50% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Francs Borains's recent games and 57% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Francs Borains run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Kortrijk 4-1 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 31, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.90 xG and Kortrijk 0.72 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Francs Borains beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.68 / defence 0.77 against Kortrijk attack 0.68 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 38% | Draw 35% | Kortrijk 28%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 51%, Kortrijk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Francs Borains winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.