Liège 0-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liège at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Liège vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Beerschot VA travel to Stade de Rocourt to take on Liège. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Liège stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Liège, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liège's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stade de Rocourt this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Beerschot VA have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beerschot VA away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Liège) versus 2.10 (Beerschot VA). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Beerschot VA, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Liège.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Beerschot VA winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beerschot VA have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Liège in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liège 55% versus Beerschot VA 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 54% | Beerschot VA 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 1.50 xG and Beerschot VA 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 1.204 / defence 0.913 | Beerschot VA attack 0.899 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.372. Data: 56 Liège games / 28 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liège 46% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 29%. Fair-value odds: Liège 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Beerschot VA 3.45. Liège hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liège at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liège offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Liège 50% | Beerschot VA 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liège vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de Rocourt • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liège 46% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Liège 1.50 / Beerschot VA 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Liège attack 1.204 / def 0.913 | Beerschot VA attack 0.899 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Liège (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Liège xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Beerschot VA xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liège vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Liège vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stade de Rocourt.
What was the final score in Liège vs Beerschot VA?
Liège 0 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is Liège vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Rocourt.
What competition is Liège vs Beerschot VA part of?
Liège vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Liège vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Liège a 46% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Liège the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liège vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Liège and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Liège vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and Beerschot VA?
Record (3 meetings): Liège 0W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 3W.
What form are Liège and Beerschot VA in?
Liège (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Liège's attack at 1.20x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Liège's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liège Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.89
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Liège xG
Total xG
2.62
1.13
Beerschot VA xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
6%
15.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liège vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Liège and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Liège and 1.13 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Liège vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Liège's recent record stands at 23W 12D 21L from 56 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Liège is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 21L across 56 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Liège on 1.45 PPG, Beerschot VA on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Liège have managed 13W 8D 6L from 27 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 8W 4D 15L across 27 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liège come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Liège are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.29 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liège
Blended
Beerschot VA
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liège and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Liège have gone 23W 12D 21L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liège at home or Beerschot VA away?
Liège's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liège at home: 1.74 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Beerschot VA have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Beerschot VA won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Liège's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Liège
0
Draws
4
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Liège have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Liège and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Liège 0-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Liège and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liège 59%, Beerschot VA 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Liège) and 56% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liège home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liège play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Liège's games and 52% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Liège vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Liège's recent games and 56% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liège and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Liège have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beerschot VA defy the odds to beat Liège 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Liège 0-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.50 xG and Beerschot VA 1.13 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Liège fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.20 / defence 0.91 against Beerschot VA attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liège 46% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 29%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Beerschot VA win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 54%, Beerschot VA 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liège's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liège 1.45 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. Liège (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.