🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

KRC Genk II make the trip to Stade de la Neuville to face Olympic Charleroi in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Olympic Charleroi have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

At home at Stade de la Neuville, Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 2D 8L this season (10 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

KRC Genk II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

KRC Genk II away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, KRC Genk II are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympic Charleroi lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 4–3 with Olympic Charleroi winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Olympic Charleroi — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 50% versus KRC Genk II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 57% | KRC Genk II 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 1.04 xG and KRC Genk II 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.576 / defence 1.592 | KRC Genk II attack 0.985 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.374. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.576 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Olympic Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Olympic Charleroi games / 57 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 17% | Draw 20% | KRC Genk II 63%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 5.88 | Draw 5.00 | KRC Genk II 1.59. The model has a clear lean to KRC Genk II (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 40% | KRC Genk II 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights