TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as TSV Hartberg face Red Bull Salzburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Hartberg this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Hartberg this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Red Bull Salzburg, who boast 7 victories compared to 1 for TSV Hartberg.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Red Bull Salzburg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 51% | Red Bull Salzburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.34 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.095 / defence 1.333 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.941 / defence 0.676. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.676 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 TSV Hartberg games / 31 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 28% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 42%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 28% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.34 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.095 / def 1.333 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.941 / def 0.676 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Red Bull Salzburg xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadion Hartberg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 28% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (10 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 2 | Red Bull Salzburg 7W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 1.09x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
28%
3.52
30%
3.34
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.97
1.64
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
6%
18.07
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.64 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 14D 14L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.68 PPG from 41 outings (19W 12D 10L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.29 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (8W 8D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.88 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 19W 12D 10L in their last 41 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.20 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 60%, Red Bull Salzburg at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (TSV Hartberg) and 50% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of TSV Hartberg's games and 70% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.