TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Hartberg this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Red Bull Salzburg, who boast 7 victories compared to 1 for TSV Hartberg.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 50% versus Red Bull Salzburg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Red Bull Salzburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 0.96 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.800 / defence 1.228 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.205 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.177. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 TSV Hartberg games / 26 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 18% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 53%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 5.56 | Draw 3.45 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.89. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 18% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG TSV Hartberg 0.96 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.800 / def 1.228 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.205 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Red Bull Salzburg xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadion Hartberg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 18% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 53% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (10 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 2 | Red Bull Salzburg 7W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.80x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
18%
5.52
29%
3.51
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.70
1.74
Red Bull Salzburg xG
5.52
18%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
3%
31.46
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.74 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 12D 12L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.61 PPG from 36 outings (16W 10D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.33 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 5W 5D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.67 points per game from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.81 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 12D 12L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 16W 10D 10L in their last 36 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.11 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 56%, Red Bull Salzburg 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (TSV Hartberg) and 56% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of TSV Hartberg's games and 72% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 56% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.