Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours TSV Hartberg (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wolfsberger AC face TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal-Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lavanttal-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour TSV Hartberg — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, TSV Hartberg 5, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 56% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 61% | TSV Hartberg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.26 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.754 / defence 1.152 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.040 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Wolfsberger AC's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Wolfsberger AC games / 31 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 28% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 41%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | TSV Hartberg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 1.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 30% | TSV Hartberg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 28% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.26 / TSV Hartberg 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.754 / def 1.152 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.040 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.56
TSV Hartberg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Lavanttal-Arena.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 28% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
Record (10 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 3W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 5W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
28%
3.60
31%
3.24
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.56
TSV Hartberg xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
6%
17.18
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.56 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 12W 10D 19L from 41 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 14L across 41 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.12 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 7W 7D 6L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 7W 8D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.34 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.40 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 50%, TSV Hartberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Wolfsberger AC) and 45% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 35%; TSV Hartberg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 45% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.