Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.20 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Austria Vienna have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while TSV Hartberg have managed just 2 wins.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Austria Vienna winning.
The historical record gives Austria Vienna a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
TSV Hartberg trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 54% versus TSV Hartberg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 57% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 0.88 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.702 / defence 0.987 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.998 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. Austria Vienna's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. TSV Hartberg's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Austria Vienna games / 27 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 27% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 40%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | TSV Hartberg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 50% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 27% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Austria Vienna 0.88 / TSV Hartberg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.702 / def 0.987 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.998 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.14
TSV Hartberg xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Generali Arena.
Where is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 27% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Record (10 meetings): Austria Vienna 7W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 2W.
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
27%
3.76
33%
3.03
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.02
1.14
TSV Hartberg xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.14 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 15W 5D 17L from 37 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 13L across 37 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.35 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 6W 3D 9L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 7W 7D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 15W 5D 17L in their last 37 games (1.35 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 12D 13L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.17 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 44%, TSV Hartberg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Austria Vienna) and 39% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 39%; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 39% of games; TSV Hartberg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 44% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 39% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.