WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Rapid Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — WSG Wattens at 1.20 PPG versus Rapid Vienna's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. WSG Wattens register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rapid Vienna in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Rapid Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters against WSG Wattens's 0 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Rapid Vienna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
WSG Wattens trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Rapid Vienna trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 57% versus Rapid Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 51% | Rapid Vienna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.65 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.803 / defence 1.149 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.075 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. Rapid Vienna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing WSG Wattens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 WSG Wattens games / 27 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 42% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 32%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Rapid Vienna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 60% | Rapid Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 42% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG WSG Wattens 1.65 / Rapid Vienna 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.803 / def 1.149 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.075 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Rapid Vienna xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna part of?
WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 42% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
Record (10 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 3 | Rapid Vienna 7W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.80) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.85
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.08
1.43
Rapid Vienna xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
6%
16.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.43 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 12W 11D 14L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 15W 8D 14L from 37 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.27 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 6D 7L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.41 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Early Season
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 15W 8D 14L in their last 37 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Rapid Vienna away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.50 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Rapid Vienna won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
7
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 0, Rapid Vienna have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — WSG Wattens at 67%, Rapid Vienna at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (WSG Wattens) and 44% (Rapid Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of WSG Wattens's games and 67% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 44% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.