Grazer AK vs Ried – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur-Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus Ried in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grazer AK have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 5W 4D 1L at Merkur-Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ried (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Ried have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Grazer AK, 1.00 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ried in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Grazer AK, 2 for Ried and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Ried winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 54% versus Ried 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | Ried 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.79 xG and Ried 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.851 / defence 0.870 | Ried attack 1.005 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.177. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Grazer AK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Grazer AK games / 27 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 53% | Draw 28% | Ried 19%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Ried 5.26. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 70% | Ried 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 53% | Draw 28% | Ried 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Grazer AK 1.79 / Ried 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.851 / def 0.870 | Ried attack 1.005 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Ried xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Ried kick off?
Grazer AK vs Ried is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Grazer AK vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Ried part of?
Grazer AK vs Ried is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 53% chance of winning, Ried a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Grazer AK and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Ried?
Record (5 meetings): Grazer AK 1W | Draws 2 | Ried 2W.
What form are Grazer AK and Ried in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Ried (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Grazer AK's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Ried's attack (1.00x) against Grazer AK's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.57
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.82
1.03
Ried xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
3%
31.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.03 for Ried, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 11D 16L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ried's form line: 15W 6D 16L from 37 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.38 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (7W 8D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Grazer AK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ried have gone 3W 4D 11L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grazer AK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Grazer AK are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.22 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Early Season
Ried
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Ried in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Ried have gone 15W 6D 16L in their last 37 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Ried away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.61 PPG; Ried away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Ried go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Grazer AK
2
Draws
2
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Ried?
From 5 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 1, Ried have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Ried 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Grazer AK, 67% for Ried — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Grazer AK) and 56% (Ried). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ried in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Grazer AK's games and 67% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Grazer AK's matches and 56% of Ried's.
Do Grazer AK and Ried tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ried in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.