Grazer AK vs Ried – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur-Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus Ried in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grazer AK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 5W 5D 0L at Merkur-Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ried (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Ried have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Grazer AK, 1.40 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ried in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Grazer AK, 2 for Ried and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Ried winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 56% versus Ried 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 61% | Ried 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.49 xG and Ried 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.742 / defence 0.835 | Ried attack 0.998 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Grazer AK games / 31 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 43% | Draw 32% | Ried 24%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Ried 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 60% | Ried 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 43% | Draw 32% | Ried 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Grazer AK 1.49 / Ried 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.742 / def 0.835 | Ried attack 0.998 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ried xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Ried kick off?
Grazer AK vs Ried is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Grazer AK vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Ried part of?
Grazer AK vs Ried is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 43% chance of winning, Ried a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Grazer AK and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Ried?
Record (5 meetings): Grazer AK 1W | Draws 2 | Ried 2W.
What form are Grazer AK and Ried in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Grazer AK's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Ried's attack (1.00x) against Grazer AK's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.10
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.58
1.09
Ried xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.09 for Ried, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 13D 17L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried's form line: 18W 7D 16L from 41 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.49 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (7W 10D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Grazer AK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ried have gone 5W 4D 11L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grazer AK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Grazer AK are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.34 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Ried in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 11W 13D 17L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Ried have gone 18W 7D 16L in their last 41 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Ried away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.55 PPG; Ried away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Ried go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Grazer AK
2
Draws
2
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Ried?
From 5 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 1, Ried have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Ried 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Grazer AK, 65% for Ried — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Grazer AK) and 55% (Ried). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ried in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Grazer AK's games and 65% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Grazer AK's matches and 55% of Ried's.
Do Grazer AK and Ried tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ried in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.