TSV Hartberg 1-0 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 5W 2D 3L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.40 (Rapid Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for TSV Hartberg, 0 for Rapid Vienna and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 51% versus Rapid Vienna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 64% | Rapid Vienna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.01 xG and Rapid Vienna 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.122 / defence 1.187 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.311 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.357. Rapid Vienna's defence strength of 0.715 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Rapid Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — the away xG of 2.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 TSV Hartberg games / 35 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 16% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 62%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Rapid Vienna 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 40% | Rapid Vienna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 16% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.01 / Rapid Vienna 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.122 / def 1.187 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.311 / def 0.715 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Rapid Vienna xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 0 Rapid Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 16% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
Record (1 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 0 | Rapid Vienna 0W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
16%
6.12
22%
4.55
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.12
2.11
Rapid Vienna xG
6.12
16%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
12%
8.25
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
2%
50.45
22%
4.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 2.11 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 10D 20L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.33 PPG from 45 outings (16W 12D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.22 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 7W 5D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (8W 4D 10L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.71 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 10D 20L in their last 45 games (1.22 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.18 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Rapid Vienna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 54%, Rapid Vienna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for TSV Hartberg and 54% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna in 32%; TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 50% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 54% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Rapid Vienna 1-0 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.01 xG and Rapid Vienna 2.11 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rapid Vienna landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.12 / defence 1.19 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.31 / defence 0.71, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 16% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 62%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a TSV Hartberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 64%, Rapid Vienna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.22 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.