TSV Hartberg 3-2 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to PROfertil ARENA to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC BW Linz (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC BW Linz have posted 2W 0D 4L from 6 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward TSV Hartberg. A 0.50 PPG lead over FC BW Linz (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — TSV Hartberg lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 42% versus FC BW Linz 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 75% | FC BW Linz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.88 xG and FC BW Linz 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.046 / defence 1.151 | FC BW Linz attack 0.918 / defence 1.470. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.331. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.470 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 TSV Hartberg games / 12 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 48% | Draw 24% | FC BW Linz 28%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | FC BW Linz 3.57. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 40% | FC BW Linz 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 48% | Draw 24% | FC BW Linz 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.88 / FC BW Linz 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.046 / def 1.151 | FC BW Linz attack 0.918 / def 1.470 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.41
FC BW Linz xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
TSV Hartberg 3 - 2 FC BW Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 48% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz?
Record (1 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 1 | FC BW Linz 0W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against FC BW Linz's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.92x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 34/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.10
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.29
1.41
FC BW Linz xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.41 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 5W 4D 3L from 12 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC BW Linz, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 5L across 12 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours TSV Hartberg by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC BW Linz heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC BW Linz's away record stands at 2W 0D 4L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.08 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Defensively: TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or FC BW Linz away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.33 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 1.00 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 4-1 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
1
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz?
From 6 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-1 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 50%, FC BW Linz 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for TSV Hartberg and 67% for FC BW Linz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 33% of games; FC BW Linz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 50% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 67% of FC BW Linz's.
Do TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as TSV Hartberg edge out FC BW Linz 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat FC BW Linz 3-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.88 xG and FC BW Linz 1.41 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against FC BW Linz attack 0.92 / defence 1.47, drawn from 34/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 48% | Draw 24% | FC BW Linz 28%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 75%, FC BW Linz 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.