Rapid Vienna 1-0 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rapid Vienna face FC BW Linz.

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Match Analysis

Rapid Vienna host FC BW Linz at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Rapid Vienna have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC BW Linz stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

FC BW Linz away from home: 2W 0D 5L from their last 7 away games — 0.86 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.86 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rapid Vienna at 1.10 PPG versus FC BW Linz's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Rapid Vienna, 0 for FC BW Linz and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Rapid Vienna 5–0 FC BW Linz — a Rapid Vienna win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

FC BW Linz in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 43% versus FC BW Linz 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 43% | FC BW Linz 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 2.40 xG and FC BW Linz 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.251 / defence 1.262 | FC BW Linz attack 0.991 / defence 1.450. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.280. Rapid Vienna carry an above-average attack rating of 1.251 — their 2.40 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC BW Linz's defence rating of 1.450 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rapid Vienna's projected output up. Rapid Vienna's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC BW Linz's projected output up. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 36 games and FC BW Linz's last 14.

Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 56% | Draw 19% | FC BW Linz 25%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.80 | Draw 5.19 | FC BW Linz 3.97. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.40 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.01 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rapid Vienna's last 10 home games and FC BW Linz's last 7 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 80% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 57% (last 7 away games).

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