FC BW Linz 2-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hofmann Personal Stadion plays host to FC BW Linz versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga (matchday 14). Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC BW Linz at home: 1W 4D 1L from their last 6 home games — 1.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Lask Linz (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Lask Linz's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lask Linz are 0.90 PPG clear of FC BW Linz over their recent games (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for FC BW Linz, 1 for Lask Linz and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended FC BW Linz 0–2 Lask Linz — a Lask Linz win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC BW Linz — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 46% versus Lask Linz 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 54% | Lask Linz 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.03 xG and Lask Linz 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.763 / defence 1.012 | Lask Linz attack 1.133 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.330. FC BW Linz's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 13 games and Lask Linz's last 35.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 25% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 48%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 3.96 | Draw 3.77 | Lask Linz 2.08. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lask Linz are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 33% (last 6 home games) | Lask Linz 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 14 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 25% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG FC BW Linz 1.03 / Lask Linz 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.763 / def 1.012 | Lask Linz attack 1.133 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Lask Linz xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz?
FC BW Linz 2 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz part of?
FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 14) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 25% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC BW Linz and Lask Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 0.76x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.13x) against FC BW Linz's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 13 games and Lask Linz's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
25%
3.96
27%
3.77
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.56
1.52
Lask Linz xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
6%
18.18
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.52 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC BW Linz's recent record stands at 3W 4D 6L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 2L across 13 games — 1.92 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC BW Linz heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC BW Linz have managed 1W 4D 1L from their last 6 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across their last 6 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lask Linz's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.54 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
FC BW Linz (Home) vs Lask Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.17 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.33 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between FC BW Linz and Lask Linz, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lask Linz have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC BW Linz
1
Draws
3
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Lask Linz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 2, Lask Linz have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Lask Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2025: FC BW Linz 0-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 33%, Lask Linz 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC BW Linz) and 50% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and Lask Linz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 67% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC BW Linz and Lask Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 50% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Lask Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 100% of Lask Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC BW Linz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat Lask Linz 2-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.03 xG and Lask Linz 1.52 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lask Linz landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.76 / defence 1.01 against Lask Linz attack 1.13 / defence 1.01, drawn from 13/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 25% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 48%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a FC BW Linz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 54%, Lask Linz 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lask Linz's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with FC BW Linz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.