Austria Vienna 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Austria Vienna have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Red Bull Salzburg's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Red Bull Salzburg arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 58% versus Red Bull Salzburg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 67% | Red Bull Salzburg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.09 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.005 / defence 0.730 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.393 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.332. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.393, which lifts their away xG to 1.35. Austria Vienna have a tight defence (rating 0.730), which is pulling Red Bull Salzburg's projected output down. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 35 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 35.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 30% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 43%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 3.36 | Draw 3.61 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 40% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 14 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 30% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.09 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.005 / def 0.730 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.393 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Red Bull Salzburg xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Austria Vienna 0 - 0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 14) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 30% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.39x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 35 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
30%
3.36
28%
3.61
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.45
1.35
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.35 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 17W 13D 15L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 32W 10D 3L from 45 games, 2.36 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Vienna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 22 home games (10W 6D 6L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 18W 4D 0L from their last 22 away games — 2.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.13 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 17W 13D 15L in their last 45 games (1.42 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 32W 10D 3L in their last 45 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.64 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.64 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Red Bull Salzburg have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won Austria Vienna 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
8
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 4-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 50%, Red Bull Salzburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Austria Vienna and 59% for Red Bull Salzburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Austria Vienna's matches and 59% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 73% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Austria Vienna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg finished level at 0-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.09 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.35 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Red Bull Salzburg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.00 / defence 0.73 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.39 / defence 0.81, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 30% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 43%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 67%, Red Bull Salzburg 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.