Austria Vienna 1-0 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Vienna have posted 3W 4D 3L at Generali Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Austria Lustenau (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Austria Vienna's 1.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Austria Lustenau's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Austria Vienna, 1 for Austria Lustenau and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Austria Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 59% versus Austria Lustenau 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 67% | Austria Lustenau 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.25 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.086 / defence 0.776 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.702 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.389. Austria Vienna's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Austria Vienna games / 34 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 47% | Draw 33% | Austria Lustenau 21%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Austria Lustenau 4.76. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Austria Vienna 50% | Austria Lustenau 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 47% | Draw 33% | Austria Lustenau 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Austria Vienna 1.25 / Austria Lustenau 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.086 / def 0.776 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.702 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Austria Lustenau xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Austria Vienna 1 - 0 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 47% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
Record (5 meetings): Austria Vienna 2W | Draws 2 | Austria Lustenau 1W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.09) and Austria Lustenau's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.70x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
47%
2.15
33%
3.06
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.01
0.76
Austria Lustenau xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
6%
16.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.76 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 16W 14D 16L from 46 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Lustenau, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 21L across 46 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.02 for Austria Lustenau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 9W 7D 6L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Lustenau's away record stands at 5W 9D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.22 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 16W 14D 16L in their last 46 games (1.35 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 14D 21L in their last 46 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.55 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Austria Vienna won 5-0 on 11 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
2
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Austria Lustenau 2-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 54%, Austria Lustenau 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Austria Vienna) and 46% (Austria Lustenau). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Austria Lustenau in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 54% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Austria Vienna's matches and 46% of Austria Lustenau's.
Do Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out Austria Lustenau 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Austria Lustenau 1-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.25 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.76 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 0.78 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.70 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 47% | Draw 33% | Austria Lustenau 21%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 67%, Austria Lustenau 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.35 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.