Austria Lustenau 0-4 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau host TSV Hartberg at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Austria Lustenau — last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Austria Lustenau's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, TSV Hartberg have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour TSV Hartberg — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Austria Lustenau: 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for TSV Hartberg, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Austria Lustenau 2–2 TSV Hartberg — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Austria Lustenau and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 51% versus TSV Hartberg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 56% | TSV Hartberg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 0.78 xG and TSV Hartberg 2.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.705 / defence 1.647 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.065 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.333. Austria Lustenau's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Austria Lustenau's defence rating of 1.647 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing TSV Hartberg's projected output up. Data: built from Austria Lustenau's last 33 games and TSV Hartberg's last 33.
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 9% | Draw 20% | TSV Hartberg 71%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 10.99 | Draw 4.95 | TSV Hartberg 1.41. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (71%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet TSV Hartberg are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Lustenau's last 10 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Lustenau 50% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 9% | Draw 20% | TSV Hartberg 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Austria Lustenau 0.78 / TSV Hartberg 2.34 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.705 / def 1.647 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.065 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
2.34
TSV Hartberg xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Lustenau 0 - 4 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 9% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 71% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Austria Lustenau's attack rating (0.70) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 2.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Austria Lustenau's last 33 games and TSV Hartberg's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
9%
10.99
20%
4.95
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
0 – 3
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.12
2.34
TSV Hartberg xG
10.99
9%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
10%
10.37
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
1%
113.97
32%
3.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.34 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 13D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (13W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 1.07 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 5W 5D 11L across their last 21 home games, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 21 away games (6W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.28 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Lustenau (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Lustenau
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 10D 20L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 0.95 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
TSV Hartberg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Jun 2023, when Austria Lustenau won Austria Lustenau 5-1 TSV Hartberg.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Lustenau have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: TSV Hartberg 4-3 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 48%, TSV Hartberg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Austria Lustenau) and 57% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 33%; Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 38% of games; TSV Hartberg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 57% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 67% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant TSV Hartberg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Austria Lustenau 0-4 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 0.78 xG and TSV Hartberg 2.34 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 2.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.70 / defence 1.65 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 9% | Draw 20% | TSV Hartberg 71%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 56%, TSV Hartberg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.07 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.