Austria Lustenau 0-4 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau host TSV Hartberg at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's home record at Planet Pure Stadion: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour TSV Hartberg — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Austria Lustenau hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Austria Lustenau and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 51% versus TSV Hartberg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 56% | TSV Hartberg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 0.78 xG and TSV Hartberg 2.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.705 / defence 1.647 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.065 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.333. Austria Lustenau's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Austria Lustenau games / 33 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 9% | Draw 20% | TSV Hartberg 71%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 11.11 | Draw 5.00 | TSV Hartberg 1.41. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (71%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Austria Lustenau dominate the H2H record, yet TSV Hartberg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 50% | TSV Hartberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 9% | Draw 20% | TSV Hartberg 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 51% | xG Austria Lustenau 0.78 / TSV Hartberg 2.34 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.705 / def 1.647 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.065 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
2.34
TSV Hartberg xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Lustenau 0 - 4 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 9% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 71% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Record (5 meetings): Austria Lustenau 3W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Austria Lustenau's attack rating (0.70) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 2.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
9%
10.99
20%
4.95
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
0 – 3
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.12
2.34
TSV Hartberg xG
10.99
9%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
10%
10.37
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
1%
113.97
32%
3.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.34 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 13D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (13W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 1.07 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 5W 5D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.28 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 10D 20L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 0.95 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2023, when Austria Lustenau won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Austria Lustenau 0-4 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 48%, TSV Hartberg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Austria Lustenau) and 57% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 33%; Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 38% of games; TSV Hartberg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 57% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant TSV Hartberg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Austria Lustenau 0-4 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 0.78 xG and TSV Hartberg 2.34 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 2.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.70 / defence 1.65 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 9% | Draw 20% | TSV Hartberg 71%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 56%, TSV Hartberg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.07 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.