Sturm Graz 1-0 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sturm Graz face FC BW Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sturm Graz welcome FC BW Linz to Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Sturm Graz have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC BW Linz stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC BW Linz away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Sturm Graz have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Sturm Graz: 6 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for FC BW Linz, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Sturm Graz 4–3 FC BW Linz — a Sturm Graz win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sturm Graz and goals — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
FC BW Linz in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 59% versus FC BW Linz 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 61% | FC BW Linz 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.33 xG and FC BW Linz 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.904 / defence 1.122 | FC BW Linz attack 0.787 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.110. FC BW Linz's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 41 games and FC BW Linz's last 41.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 45% | Draw 28% | FC BW Linz 27%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.23 | Draw 3.61 | FC BW Linz 3.64. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 70% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 45% | Draw 28% | FC BW Linz 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.33 / FC BW Linz 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.904 / def 1.122 | FC BW Linz attack 0.787 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.98
FC BW Linz xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Sturm Graz 1 - 0 FC BW Linz.
Where is Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz part of?
Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 45% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against FC BW Linz's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, FC BW Linz's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 41 games and FC BW Linz's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.61
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.31
0.98
FC BW Linz xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.98 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Sturm Graz have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 29W 7D 15L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
FC BW Linz's form line: 15W 7D 29L from 51 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sturm Graz have posted 1.84 PPG from their last 25 home games (14W 4D 7L).
On the road, FC BW Linz have gone 4W 6D 15L from their last 25 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.06 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz (Home) vs FC BW Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 29W 7D 15L in their last 51 games (1.84 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 15W 7D 29L in their last 51 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or FC BW Linz away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.84 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Sturm Graz won Sturm Graz 4-1 FC BW Linz.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting FC BW Linz specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
0
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 7, FC BW Linz have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Sturm Graz 1-0 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 60%, FC BW Linz 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sturm Graz) and 52% (FC BW Linz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sturm Graz's games and 52% of FC BW Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sturm Graz's matches and 52% of FC BW Linz's.
Do Sturm Graz and FC BW Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 68% of FC BW Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out FC BW Linz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat FC BW Linz 1-0 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.33 xG and FC BW Linz 0.98 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC BW Linz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against FC BW Linz attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 45% | Draw 28% | FC BW Linz 27%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 61%, FC BW Linz 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.